The most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report concludes that Iran shelved its nuclear weapons program over 4 years ago. The declassified version says: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Who writes the NIE?
The NIE is a report put together by the U.S. Intelligence Community which includes: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA); Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Energy Department; Office of Intelligence and Analysis, Department of Homeland Security; Bureau of Intelligence and Research, State Department; Office of Intelligence and Analysis, Treasury Department; Office of National Security Intelligence, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA); National Security Branch of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; National Reconnaissance Office; National Security Agency (NSA); U.S. Air Force; U.S. Army; U.S. Cost Guard; U.S. Marine Corps; and U.S. Navy. (Overview of the United States Intelligence Community) Clearly this is not some guy sitting in a back room with a visor. It's the best and most informed groups in the world who come together and agree about what is going on.
Media reports tell us that this NIE report was written last year. Since that time Bush, Cheney, and others in this administration have been running around trying to use the smoking gun rhetoric once again to incite an attack on Iran. And they KNEW there was no threat. This really puts the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq into perspective. For those who still doubt that the Bush administration cooked the books about Iraq (see Iraq: Making a Case for Invasion), this should close the case. However, this time, they've been blind-sided by their own intelligence community.
If you saw Bush's press conference today you know how frightening our world has gotten. Bush said he didn't know about this report. Either he's lying or Cheney and his crew didn't tell him. I don't know which is worse. And, if you're still not frightened, think about this. At the press conference Bush said that last summer Mike McConnell, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), told him that he had "new information" about Iran. But, he said, McConnell didn't tell him what the information was. What? He didn't ask? He's running around like Chicken Little, he's told there's new information, and he doesn't ask what it is?
Another point. Valerie Plame, the covert CIA official who was "outed" by the Bush administration, worked on monitoring the production and movement of uranium in the Middle East. I would suggest that she wasn't just "outed" because her husband, Joe Wilson, spoke out against Bush's claim that Iraq was seeking uranium to build nuclear weapons. I suggest that it was also an effort to close down her operation so that the CIA wouldn't have the information to argue against their attack of Iran when it happened. And it was going to happen. On March 2, 2007 Amy Goodman had a long interview with General Wesley Clark, the retired 4-star general who was the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO during the Kosovo War. Clark said that shortly after the 9/11 attacks he was informed by a friend in the Pentagon that he had received a memo from Donald Rumsfeld, then the Secretary of Defense, that described "how we're going to take out 7 countries in 5 years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran."
One last point. Bush said that Iran should not have the "knowledge" to build a nuclear weapon. Anyone who has access to the Internet or a college library can get the "knowledge." If this is the benchmark he uses for attacking another country we know that he's not just incompetent, he's crazy.
The Issue Wonk