The Super Tuesday voting got me to thinking about the dynamics in each party. The Democrats are the most interesting since the Democratic party, as Mark Twain said, isn't an organized political party. It's a confederation of factions. Bill Clinton was hugely supported by Democrats and it seems that loyalty is extending to his wife. Any disenchantment with Bill appears to lie with the men, who seem to be switching to Obama. For female Bill Clinton supporters, their loyalty is to Hillary. So, for the older, traditional Democrats, it appears that most support Hillary but any division is gender-based, with women for Hillary and men for Obama.
It must be remembered, however, that Bill Clinton's golden days were a decade ago and his and his wife's supporters are older. For the younger voters Obama is clearly the choice, though a few of the young woman appear to be attracted to the thought of the first woman president. The reason Obama is trailing is obvious. It's demographics. There just aren't as many young people as there are older people. If Obama wants to pull this out he's going to have to find a way to attract the older generation.
Then there are the races. It appears that black voters support Obama. But there just aren't enough of them to put him over the top. Everyone is talking about the Latinos but, as far as I know, Latino voters have always split between Democrats and Republicans. This year we're hearing about Hillary picking up the Latino votes. From the discussions I've heard it seems to me that it's the Latino women who are on the Hillary bandwagon. And, in most states, the Latino voters are dominated by the women, not the men.
The Republican dynamics have me baffled. Pundits tell us that Bush supporters are supporting McCain who has declared he'll continue most, not all, of Bush's policies. But, all the Bush supporters I know dislike McCain and voted for Romney. I've heard that the conservative wing of the Republican party is inflexible; they believe that to be a conservative you must follow that line on every issue. That may be the conservatives' problem with McCain and why the moderates are supporting him. Romney appears to be picking up the Bush supporters who are tough on the immigration issue. These may also be the inflexible conservatives who've decided that all the other issues aren't as important as this one. Obviously there aren't enough of those to push him over the top. And, of course, the religious right is going for Huckabee but there aren't enough of those to get him the nomination. When Huckabee is gone, where will the religious right go?
You'll notice that, for Democrats, the lines are among age, gender, race. For Republicans the lines are among moderates, conservatives, neo-conservatives, and religious conservatives. That's interesting on its own. It appears that the issues are of less interest to Democrats than is leadership. Maybe that's because Democrats are pretty much united on the issues and are just looking for the best person to implement them. Republicans are divided on the issues and support those who reflect their opinions.
Finally, there's the Bloomberg factor. As divided as the electorate is I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he throws his hat in the ring. He doesn't need political party support. He has his own money. He's moderate, having once been a Democrat and then switching to a Republican. Bloomberg may be able to tap into the discontent of many Democratic and Republican voters. But, would it be enough to propel him to the forefront or just enough for him to become the greatest spoiler in history?
I'm tired of the pundits. I think they read too much into some things and not enough into others. Also, the pundits are primarily wealthy people, out of touch with the real world. I'd love to hear what normal people think.